(16) South Wales “super” club rugby – the “myth” of the large Saturday afternoon crowd for the non-Test segment of the professional game…?

“When the Blues, Ospreys, Scarlets and Dragons were first formed in the summer of 2003, then Welsh Rugby Union chief executive [David] Moffett gave them the target of attracting an average home gate of 8,000…It’s early days in the new Guinness Pro12, but let’s just say the regions will be hoping the opening weekend doesn’t become a sign of the times with regards to home crowds. The Scarlets were involved in a 32-32 thriller with Ulster last Saturday and will have been hoping for more than the 6,531 who turned up in Llanelli. When you consider it was a throwback to the good old days, an old-fashioned Saturday afternoon kick-off, with no terrestrial TV coverage and two genuinely-decent sides on show, you do have to ask what more do people want?” – Andy Howell, WalesOnline, 11 September 2014 (link)

The issue of Saturday afternoon kick-off regional rugby was brought back to the fore last weekend, with the Sky broadcast Scarlets v Glasgow official attendance of 8,165 being less than the S4C broadcast Sunday afternoon Blues v Dragons official attendance of 8,203.  That might be explained by “away fans” from Gwent, although the crowd at Cardiff Arms Park was surprisingly small even by low Welsh expectations, but that does not explain why the BBC2 broadcast Friday evening Ospreys v Treviso official attendance of 8,455 was higher than for both the Sky Sports match and the S4C match.

As will have been apparent from Essay (15) (link), prima facie the structure, history, geography, culture and market focus of Welsh rugby would instinctively suggest that playing professional regional rugby on a Saturday afternoon would logically be a very perverse commercial thing for any regional rugby business to want to do in the hope of attracting a larger crowd.  At least other than for the so-called Judgement Day event and perhaps a few other local derbies.

In geographically compact South Wales rugby, which should be a case of creating multiple team affinities within the historic national sport to offset overall lesser population numbers, it makes no sense whatsoever.  It places the “region” in direct competition with the semi-pro club game, including its’ own “in-house” feeder club (only in Wales!).  It places the “region” in direct competition with the community game, both in terms of attendance choice and also providing a competing TV option indoors.  The “region” also places itself in direct competition with other Saturday afternoon sports options for the attention of neutrals and “eventers”, especially against Swansea FC and Cardiff City FC towards the top of the English soccer pyramid.  There is probably a formal medical name, no doubt in Latin, for such bat shit bonkers commercial behaviour.

In fact, there are only two arguments in favour of a Saturday afternoon kick off for regional rugby by preference, poor crowd levels/income don’t matter and it is easier for English rugby away fans to travel to South Wales (from the West Country, and maybe also from the East Midlands, with the London “home” club crowds remaining stubbornly unimpressive).  As neither apply, at least in relation to the Pro12 competition platform, and Northampton returning most of their ERCC1 quarter-final ticket allocation for the match against Saracens in Barnet does not inspire confidence for any Anglo Welsh/British + Irish league, it is all currently somewhat academic.

Indeed, I was sorely tempted to include “Saturday afternoon crowds will be larger” as the 14th “silly argument” invented by the infamous Quango for Silly Rugby Arguments (link):

But this issue is worthy of further analysis, in an essay of its own, to avoid any misunderstandings as to why this argument is intellectually incoherent.  Why is SANZAAR Super Rugby predominantly played on a Friday evening or on a Saturday evening?  Why do the New Zealand “regions” and Australian provincial teams (including the Melbourne “super” club) try and avoid a Saturday afternoon clash with their feeder clubs?  Why are Fox Sports and Sky NZ not pushing for Saturday afternoon Super Rugby?

2014 saw Sky Sports secure primary TV rights for the Pro12 until 2018, with exclusivity (subject to the occasional terrestrial share) for one or two matches on Saturday.  The BBC was amongst the stable of national terrestrial broadcasters that retained secondary rights, with a Friday evening match on BBC2 Wales and with S4C shunted from their prized Saturday 6.30pm evening slot to Sunday afternoon.  2014 was also the beginning of the new regime in Europe, with TV rights currently uneasily shared between BT Sport and Sky Sports.

Putting to one side the issue of the rather obvious Sky Sports commercial focus upon the Irish provinces, let’s go through the Saturday afternoon home kick-offs of the Welsh regions and see the official attendances (which, as discussed previously, come with a health warning given the tickets out basis rather than the bodies in calculation basis and including non-attending season ticket holders and unused issued corporate tickets):

2014-15 (Europe, in italics)

6 Sep – 2.40pm – Scarlets v Ulster – 6,531

20 Sep – 2.40pm – Dragons v Glasgow – 5,885

18 Oct – 2.30pm – Blues v Grenoble (ERCC2) – 6,267

6 Dec – 3.15pm – Ospreys v Racing Metro 92 (ERCC1) – 7,164

6 Dec – 3.15pm – Blues v London Irish (ERCC2) – 5,430

10 Jan – 2.40pm – Blues v Leinster – 7,053

24 Jan – 3pm – Dragons v Stade Francais (ERCC2) – 5,571

21 Feb – 2.40pm – Scarlets v Munster – 6,059

7 Mar – 2.40pm – Ospreys v Munster – 8,632

28 Mar – 2.40pm – Scarlets v Edinburgh – 7,310

4 April – 12.45pm – Dragons v Blues (ERCC2) – 8,119

Sat 6 May – 3pm (all matches, final round) – Blues v Zebre – 6,487

2015-16 (Europe, in italics)

12 Sep – 3pm – Scarlets v Ulster – 6,061

24 Oct – 1.30pm – Ospreys v Connacht – 7,893

7 Nov – 2.30pm – Ospreys v Zebre – 7,236

7 Nov – 3pm – Blues v Glasgow – 5,704

28 Nov – 3pm – Ospreys v Blues – 9,920

12 Dec – 2.30pm – Dragons v Pau (ERCC2) – 4,202

26 Dec – 2.05pm – Scarlets v Ospreys – 14,568

20 Feb – 3pm – Blues v Leinster – 5,321

26 Mar – 3pm – Ospreys v Scarlets – 12,051

2 Apr – 3pm – Scarlets v Blues – 9,546

16 Apr – 3.15pm – Scarlets v Glasgow – 8,165

7 May – 3pm (all matches, final round) – Ospreys v Ulster – TBA

Analysis

What stands out is not that the Saturday afternoon official attendances are not appreciably better than Friday or Saturday evenings, but in many instances they are appreciably LOWER.  And this is with Sky Sports mostly selecting the plum fixtures, and no terrestrial coverage.  Let’s work our way through this, looking at the regions in turn:

(1) Scarlets

The Scarlets have played seven home Saturday afternoon fixtures in the last two seasons, with one more to come this season.

The attendance levels, given the travelling distances in this widely dispersed Dyfed region, are surprisingly poor on a Saturday afternoon.  It is the former S4C Saturday evening slot that the Scarlets have missed, when reviewing their overall attendances and despite S4C televising such matches, and the best thing that can be said for Saturday afternoon rugby in Dyfed is that it is obviously preferred to Sunday afternoon rugby.

We saw an official attendance of 9,546 for the Scarlets v the Blues.  And yet in April 2015, without the Scarlets being a Top 4 play-off region nearly all season and without the Blues suddenly sensing ERCC1 qualification, the official attendance was 10,195 in the graveyard slot (4pm on a Sunday).

If we go back a year earlier to May 2014, with Welsh rugby at war with itself over the “super” club problems and other related issues, and with neither team in the hunt for a play-off place and European qualification already determined, the official attendance was a relatively impressive 9,046 for a 6.30pm final Saturday round dead rubber match.

Go back a year earlier, to April 2013, with the Scarlets in the hunt for play-off qualification, and the Saturday 6.30pm evening official attendance for this fixture was 10,426.  Go back another year, to May 2012, and the 7.30pm Saturday evening official attendance was 13,047.  The Friday 7.05pm evening attendance in May 2011 for this fixture was 11,200.

In fact, looking at the Scarlets generally, they are missing the former 6.30pm Saturday evening slot and despite the televising of it by S4C.  They have generally struggled on a Saturday afternoon, with the 2014-15 and 2015-16 attendances for Ulster the prime examples.  The only really successful crowd they have had on a Saturday afternoon in 2014-15 and 2015-16 has been for the Ospreys on 26 December 2015, and such a Boxing Day match would be around stadium capacity whatever the day of the week Boxing Day happened to fall upon and whatever the kick off time – see the similar Thursday 2pm crowd for the Ospreys match on Boxing Day 2013.

(2) Blues

The Blues have played six Saturday afternoon matches in the last two seasons.  Again, as with the other purer “super” club, the attendance levels are surprisingly poor.

The  7,053 and 5,321 Saturday afternoon home official attendances in the last two seasons have been well below the average for the Leinster fixture.  5,063 was the official attendance for the previous 2013-14 fixture, and that was at 8.05pm on a Thursday evening during the Six Nations!  10,741 (2010-11) and 9,390 (2011-12) were the official attendances for the Saturday evening matches during the last two seasons at the Cardiff City Stadium in Leckwith.

And whilst nobody can say other than 2014-15 was a difficult season for the Blues, nobody could be pleased with 6,267 for Grenoble and 5,430 for London Irish on Saturday afternoons or at any other time of the day or evening.  The 5,704 for Glasgow on a Saturday afternoon in November 2015 was another surprisingly poor attendance, given 6,897 for Glasgow on a Sunday late afternoon in September 2014.

(3) Ospreys

If there was one region that most would expect their official attendances to suffer by playing rugby matches on a Saturday afternoon, it would undoubtedly be the Ospreys.  Ospreylia, the “one true region“.  The Neath/Swansea amalgamation, purchasers of Bridgend RFC, and the business most reaching out to the regional rugby fraternity.

We don’t have to travel very far backwards, less than a month in fact, to a truly dismal 12,051 official attendance for the Scarlets match at 3pm on 26 March.  Their smallest home official attendance for the Scarlets fixture since a Tuesday night in September 2007, and even that was 10,143 (and during the 2007 World Cup!).  So much for Saturday afternoon kick-offs boosting the crowds…

The Ospreys have only had one home Saturday afternoon fixture in Europe over the past two seasons, the third pool match of the 2014-15 Champions Cup against star-studded Racing Metro 92.  At 3.15pm, on a Saturday afternoon, the official attendance was a rather hideous 7,164.  So one gets the wider picture and context, 7,625 was the figure for the 1st pool match against Treviso at 1pm on a Sunday two months earlier.  A season later, and a 9,479 official attendance for Clermont at 7.45pm on a Saturday evening – 2,315 more than for Racing  Metro on a Saturday afternoon.

A 9,920 official attendance for the Blues fixture at 3pm on a Saturday afternoon in November 2015, but 10,821 for the same fixture at 4pm on a Sunday afternoon in October 2014.  The Munster Saturday afternoon fixture official attendance of 8,632 in March 2015 looks better, until you see there is little difference from the Saturday evening official attendance of 8,652 in September 2012.

The only impressive Saturday afternoon attendance was the 7,893 for Connacht in October 2015, and I was there.  The fact that I did not feel 1 of as many as 7,893 is a separate issue.

It was conveniently scheduled before the titanic New Zealand v South Africa World Cup semi-final and was the first opportunity for the home crowd to see some of their returning Welsh World Cup squad players.  Not to mention Connacht were league leaders, no longer the bridesmaids of Irish provincial rugby.

The one time that Ospreylia clearly does not want to be attending regional rugby is on a Saturday afternoon, no doubt because of the greater engagement with the region.  The two issues in Ospreylia are rather different; another competing “region” in the commuter dormitory town of Llanelli and the golden era of Swansea City FC.

(4) Dragons

It’s impossible to comment upon 2015-16, because the only “home” Saturday fixture that the Dragons will play, in the Pro12, will be as part of “Judgement Day” on 30 April.  And even that will be the second match, at 5pm.  A few Friday evenings, a couple of Thursday evenings even, and more Sunday afternoons than the region can probably stomach as they have been unwanted by other broadcasters and increasingly left to disproportionately fill S4C’s Sunday afternoon graveyard slot.

There was Pau at 2.30pm on Saturday 12 December in ERCC2, but that was in front of a decidedly unimpressive official attendance of 4,202 i.e. 600 less than the semi-pro SWALEC Cup semi-final between Pontypridd and Merthyr!  Indeed, the Dragons have had five Pro12 official attendances less than the 4,800 at Sardis Road this season.

As for 2014-15, the sole home Saturday afternoon Pro12 match against Glasgow (eventual Pro 12 winners) in September 2014 attracted a respectable 5,885 by current standards at the Dragons.  Less than the Friday night home Welsh derbies against the Ospreys and the Blues (the Scarlets match being the 4.45pm second leg of the Judgement Day Saturday double header), and less than the 6,091 for Ulster on a Sunday afternoon during the 6 Nations, but better than most Sunday afternoon matches.  Around the same as for Munster on a Friday evening (5,783) during the Autumn Internationals.

Looking at Europe, and the two Saturday afternoon matches played, little can be drawn from the quarter-final crowd of 8,119 for the Welsh derby against the Blues.  That ERCC2 Cup derby fixture would achieve that enhanced level, whenever played.  The earlier pool match official attendance of 5,571 against Stade Francais was surprisingly low, especially given the earlier famous pool match victory over Stade Francais out in Paris.

If there is anything to be learnt from analysing the Dragons crowds, the key issue is not that Saturday afternoon kick-offs help.  It is rather different, that moving the S4C slot from Saturday evening to Sunday afternoon has decidedly hindered them.  For the Dragons have spent much of the last two seasons as the team left by the other broadcasters for S4C to televise on a Sunday afternoon.  9 of their 22 home Pro12 matches.

With 3 Saturday afternoon matches (including the 2 Judgement Day event matches), and 3 Thursday matches, continuity of Friday evening matches, in the absence of Saturday evening matches, has been weak for them.  Compare with Ulster, where there will be 16 of 22 home Pro12 matches on a Friday evening matches across the last two Pro12 seasons.  With just 5 home Saturday matches and 1 Sunday match to accommodate broadcasters other than BBC Ulster.  And considerably less club v province Saturday afternoon competition for the same consumer with cross-affinities between his club team and his provincial team.

For the Dragons the loss of Friday evening and Saturday evening matches is the problem, and too many Sunday afternoon matches, not any shortage of Saturday afternoon matches (other than they might be preferable to Sunday afternoon).

If the Dragons are to overcome this “broadcaster” problem, they will need fresh investment and a greater regional active support and identity to co-fund improved performance.  The first stage to achieving both will be to belatedly sever the “hard link” with Newport RFC and invite investment into an independent Gwent/East region, so the CEO has currently identified the problem funnily enough…

Conclusions

So the structure, history, geography, culture and market focus of Welsh rugby strongly suggests to us that playing professional regional rugby on a Saturday afternoon would logically be a very perverse commercial thing for any business to do in the hope of attracting a large crowd.  That is logical.  Also basic common sense.

And, surprise surprise, we arrive at the same result when we “crunch the data” in relation to official attendances.  If the 2018 Pro12 TV renewal retains the current division between Sky Sports and a stable of national terrestrial broadcasters, or something similar, there is a strong argument in favour of S4C returning to a Saturday evening.  Perhaps later than 6.30pm, to accommodate the Sky Sports double header and to persuade Sky Sports to acquiesce to this.  After all, Sky Sports can pick the more “attractive” fixtures.

Saturday afternoon appears to be no more than the preferred kick-off time for a small element within the regional fan base.  An element disconnected with the community game.  An element disconnected with the semi-pro game.  An element, in many instances, disconnected from the international game and the WRU.  An element that views their “region” as their “club”, an unhelpful by-product of the April 2003 fudge.

Sunday afternoon rugby, instead of Saturday evening rugby, is what is really not helping the Welsh regions, and is especially hammering the Dragons and the Scarlets, but Saturday afternoons do not generate higher official attendances than Friday evenings and (until 2014) Saturday evenings.  Quite the opposite, in most cases.  This is yet another baseless “myth” that needs burying once and for all.

 

Given the regional dependence upon WRU funding and central competition platform income, and that broadcasters provide the lion’s share of the latter, my next essay (17) will look at the additional needless complications that South Wales “super” clubs instead of traditional regions provide for their broadcasters.  Thereafter, we shall start analysing financial issues in great detail and how we can start evolving our way towards a fit for purpose viable regional rugby system.